", Adjusting NASS County Yields to Estimate 2019 ARC-CO Payments, https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/arcplc-program-data/index, 2019 ARC-CO Payment Estimates for Corn and Soybeans Based on NASS County Yields. County-level estimates for 2019 small grain acreage, yield, and production are now available, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The 2019 USDA/NASS data for each county is included for purposes of comparison. (USDA Photo by Preston Keres via Flickr) Today’s post further clarifies the definition of those yield adjustments and discusses implications for the uncertainty that will continue to surround estimated 2019 ARC-CO payment rates. Figure 2 maps the yield adjustment factors for corn in counties with irrigated production data. FSA will use crop insurance data collected by RMA in calculating county yields for ARC-CO, which will differ from yields reported by NASS. Age of US Farmers: Is the Wrong Issue Being Addressed? Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics. Query the Census of Agriculture database to retrieve customized Farm Service Agency, United States Department of Agriculture. Figure 4 maps the yield adjustment factors for soybeans in counties with irrigated production data. farmdoc daily (10):32, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 21, 2020. tables with Census data at the national, state and county levels as far back as 1997. VegScape is a geospatial data service, which offers automated updates of the vegetative condition at daily, weekly, and biweekly intervals. This annual report contains crop production data for the past year for grains and oilseeds, sugar crops, cotton, tobacco, and others. The 2019 average corn and soybean yields for counties and crop reporting districts in Iowa were released Feb. 20 by USDA’s National Ag Statistics Service each year using the December Agricultural Survey and the County Agricultural Production Survey. In 2019, NASS was unable to publish several large producing counties due to an insufficient number of responses.” Go. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Information. The 2019 NASS county yields are available at http://www.nass.usda.gov/ Approximately, 6 percent of the corn and soybean base acres were enrolled in the farm yield-based Ag Risk Coverage (ARC-IC) program choice for 2019 and 2020. The average soybean yield adjustment factor for counties with all and non-irrigated practices is -1.6 bushels. Deviations between the FSA and NASS yields (FSA yield minus NASS yield) were calculated for each year, and then averaged, to arrive at the county yield adjustment factors applied to NASS yields. PLC substitute County Yields Excel, 3.35MB Substitutes for any year that the farm yield is below 75% of 5-year county average yield. You Are Now Leaving the County of Orange Official Portal Final yields and prices used to determine payments will not be known until the end of the 2019 marketing year. NASS publications cover a wide range of subjects, from traditional crops, such as corn and wheat, to specialties, such as mushrooms and flowers; from calves born to hogs slaughtered; from agricultural prices to land in farms. Included in the tables are: the most recent yield, the 10-year average, and the high and low yield in the past 10 years. PUBLISHED ON March 22, 2020. 2017 Crop Year Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) Final County Yields and Final County Revenues for Sugarcane; 2018 Crop Year Margin Protection (MP) Final County Yields, Harvest Revenue and Harvest Margins for Corn, Soybeans and Rice; 2018 Crop Year Area Risk Protection Insurance (ARPI) Final County Yields and Final County Revenues … Guidelines are available here. Published yields are on a per harvested acre basis. It allows you to customize your query by commodity, location, or time period. It is designed to remotely sense geospatial soil moisture and vegetation index data derived from NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) missions to assess U.S. soil moisture condition and crop vegetation conditions. The county average yield was 52.6 bushels per acre, with 71.1 bushels per acre in 2018. Two scenarios where FSA may adjust RMA yields before certifying county yields: Economics, Statistics and Market Information System (ESMIS). As was shown for McLean county Illinois, the annual deviations between FSA and NASS yields can vary from positive to negative values. The numbers are for non-irrigated farm land only. Deviations between the FSA and NASS yields (FSA yield minus NASS yield) were calcul… The table shown here lists southwest Minnesota county NASS/USDA yields for 2019 and 2018, rounded to the closest number. The maps in figures 1 and 2 illustrate the wide range in corn yield adjustment factors. It was developed in cooperation with the Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems at George Mason University. The yields currently used to estimate 2019 ARC-CO payments could still vary from final yields used by FSA. This file includes county yield data for corn and soybeans in Iowa summarized from USDA NASS yield reports. Balance Sheet & Historical Financial Statements, Briomass Crop Budget Tool – Miscanthus & Switchgrass, Illinois Soil Productivity & Yield Utilities, Farmland LEasing Facts Sheets & Pricing Information, Paulson, N., G. Schnitkey, J. Coppess, K. Swanson and C. Zulauf. https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/arcplc_program/arcplc-program-data/index. A “2019arcCoPayEstimates.xlsx” worksheet provides an ARC-CO payment estimate for each county that NASS has provided a yield. At the farm bill meetings held across the state, farmers were provided with handouts of county yields that will be used to determine the 2019 ARC county payments. The average corn yield adjustment factor for all and non-irrigated practices is -3.8 bushels, indicating that the yields FSA will use for ARC-CO will be 3.8 bushels lower, on average, than those reported by NASS. ile 4 Iowa Corn and Soybean County Yields Page 3 Table 1. This article shows break-even county yields below which Agricultural Risk Coverage at the County Level (ARC-CO) will make payments in 2019. Tri-County Corn and Soybean Yields 2019 By Nathan Drewitz, University of Minnesota Extension. Corn and soybean yields by county and district, 2010-2019 (bu./acre), continued Corn Yields Soybean Yields EAST CENTRAL DISTRICT* 2019 10-year Average Highest Lowest 2019 10-year Yield Year Average Yield Year Benton 197.6 183.0 215.3 2017 129.3 2012 57.9 55.1 61.1 2016 46.6 2013 Break-even yields are calculated at USDA’s January estimates of Market Year Average (MYA) prices: $3.85 per bushel for corn, $8.40 per bushel for soybeans, and $5.50 per bushel for wheat. ARC/PLC Program Data, Program Year 2019 Data. The corn yield reported by NASS for 2019 in McLean county was 198.8 bushels per acre, resulting in an adjusted yield of 203.7 bushels per acre. To access FAQs or to submit a question click the arrow to the right. So, it is very important that producers respond to this survey. Recognizing that NASS yield data will not be the primary source of information used by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) to calculate ARC-CO payments, adjustment factors were applied to the NASS yields based on the relationship between the yields used by FSA to set 2019 ARC-CO benchmark yields and NASS yields over the 2013 to 2017 period. For a detailed statement, please see the University of Illinois Copyright Information and Policies here. Click here for more information on Special Tabulations. Email: askusda@usda.gov NASS publications cover a wide range of subjects, from traditional crops, such as corn and wheat, to specialties, such as mushrooms and flowers; from calves born to hogs slaughtered; from agricultural prices to land in farms. Farm Bill 2018. “NASS cannot publish a county yield unless it receives enough reports from producers in that county to make a statistically defensible estimate. The Quick Stats Database is the most comprehensive tool for accessing agricultural data published by NASS. Regional Change in Rental Rates from 2015-2019 Following is a table showing the total percent change in land rental rates for the five years from 2015 through and including 2019 and the one-year change Land Rental Rates All values are bushels per acre, per year. Last week, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released county yield estimates which we are now using to estimate 2019 ARC-CO payments for corn and soybeans (farmdoc daily February 21, 2020). Comparison of 2019 NASS vs RMA County Corn Yields The county yield data source for the Agricultural Risk Coverage County-level (ARC-CO) program was a debate in passing the 2018 Farm Bill, which ultimately changed from a National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) reported yield to a Risk Management Agency (RMA) reported yield. USDA has not yet released the final county RMA average yields for 2019, which will be used to calculate final 2019 ARC-CO payments. The yield adjustment factor is an average of the deviations between FSA and NASS yields over the 5-year period from 2013 to 2017. An example of the comparison of NASS and FSA yields, and calculation of the yield adjustment factor, for corn in McLean county Illinois is provided in Table 1. The yield adjustment factors for soybeans in counties with non-irrigated or combined (all) production are provided in Figure 3. Disclaimer: We request all readers, electronic media and others follow our citation guidelines when re-posting articles from farmdoc daily. "2019 ARC-CO Payment Estimates for Corn and Soybeans Based on NASS County Yields." Where NASS was unable to publish a county estimate, RMA determined the final county yield in accordance with the ARPI and MP basic provisions. The farmdoc daily website falls under University of Illinois copyright and intellectual property rights. Averaging the annual deviations, the corn yield adjustment factor for McLean county Illinois is 4.9 bushels. The state soybean yield average was 49.0 bushels per acre. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the 2019 estimated average county yields for corn, soybeans, and other crops on February 20. VegScape was developed in cooperation with the Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems at George Mason University. The adjustments to NASS yields used to update our ARC-CO payment estimates last week account for the average difference between NASS and FSA yields observed between 2013 and 2017, but actual FSA yields for 2019 may still vary considerably from those adjusted yield estimates. It is designed and developed by USDA-NASS and the Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems at George Mason University. While Quick Stats is the best source of county level data from NASS, acreage and yield maps of county crop estimates are available. These adjusted NASS yields are currently being used in the Gardner Program Payment Calculator and the 2018 Farm Bill What-If Tool (both available at the 2018 Farm Bill Toolbox). On June 11, USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) lowered the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (June WASDE) projected corn yie… FSA holds the right to adjust RMA yields before setting 2019 ARC-County yields. FSA will use crop insurance data collected by RMA in calculating county yields for ARC-CO, which will differ from yields reported by NASS. Adjusted NASS yields (NASS yield plus adjustment factor) were then used to estimate 2019 ARC-CO payments. FSA has released yields from 2013 through 2017 for calculating benchmark revenue. The size of annual deviations, and average adjustment factors, tend to be larger for irrigated yields in all regions, and for all and non-irrigated practices outside of the central Corn Belt. Information on area planted and harvested, yield, and production is provided by type of crop, as well as the planted and harvested area, yield, and production of crops in the U.S. cumulatively. NASS publications cover a wide range of subjects, from traditional crops, such as corn and wheat, to specialties, such as mushrooms and flowers; from calves born to hogs slaughtered; from agricultural prices to land in farms. The Census Data Query Tool (CDQT) is a web based tool that is available to access and download table level data from the Census of Agriculture Volume 1 publication. NASS County estimates where utilized if crop insurance yield data did not exist (or was not sufficient) and if the yield reported by NASS was reflective of the given irrigation practice. NASS publishes county yields based on statistical sampling methods and are typically released in February of the year following production. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Risk Management Agency. The soybean yield adjustment factor for McLean county Illinois is 1.8 bushels. FSA has released yields from 2013 through 2017 for calculating benchmark revenue. The actual county revenue is the final Risk Management Agency (RMA) county average yield times the final MYA price for the year. ARC-IC utilizes the same market year average price as PLC and ARC-CO. Farm operators were more interested in the NASS yields this year than in other years, due to the potential impacts on the 2019 and 2020 farm program decisions. The corn yield reported by NASS for 2019 in McLean county was 198.8 bushels per acre, resulting in an adjusted yield of 203.7 bushels per acre. PLC Yield Adjustment Factor PDF 113KB Provides the ratio of the 2008-2012 average national yield divided by 2013-2017 average national yield (limited to .9000 - 1.0000). USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Information. Wheat acres in the county were 10,600 acres of wheat planted with 8,000 acres harvested in 2019. After years of using NASS yields as a primary data source for FSA yields, Congress mandated FSA to use RMA yields. The cool and wet conditions this spring resulted in the slowest corn planting progress since USDA started recording planting progress in 1980. Thus, the adjusted NASS yields used in the Gardner Program Payment Calculator and What-If Tool are likely more reliable for areas in the Central Corn Belt with non-irrigated or combined (all) production types, and less reliable for areas outside the region or where irrigated production will be reported separately by FSA for ARC-CO. Again, the yield adjustment factors are averages of deviations between FSA and NASS yields over a 5-year period for each county where data is available. Trend adjustments were removed from the FSA benchmark yield histories and then compared with NASS yield data, where available, over the 2013 to 2017 crop years. The yield adjustments, or average deviations between FSA and NASS yields, tend to be smallest in the main production regions of the Central Corn Belt for both corn and soybeans. Share Tweet Email. The annual deviations between FSA and NASS yields for McLean county range from -9.9 (in 2015) to 12.9 bushels (in 2014). This is an average of annual deviations between FSA and NASS yields for soybeans in McLean county, which range from -0.8 (in 2013) to 5.7 bushels (in 2016). There was a total of 421,000 bushels of wheat produced during 2019 in Hardin County. For each year from 2013 to 2017, differences between the FSA and NASS yield … Farm operators were more interested in the NASS yields this year than in other years, due to the potential impacts on the 2019 and 2020 farm program decisions. Have specific subject questions for one of our experts, click the arrow to the right. This is an average of annual deviations between FSA and NASS yields for soybeans in McLean county, which range from -0.8 (in 2013) to 5.7 bushels (in 2016). County estimates can be found in QuickStats at https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov. Final yields used by FSA could be above or below current projections based on NASS data, resulting in significant changes in ARC-CO payment rates from our current forecasts. Website: https://ask.usda.gov/s/, Customer Service Email: / Phone:  (800) 727-9540, Sue King, Public Affairs Director Email: / Phone:  (202) 690-8122, Jim Barrett, Public Affairs Specialist Email: / Phone:  (202) 690-8124, Teresa White, Public Affairs Specialist Email: / Phone: (202) 690-8123, June Turner, Director  Email: / Phone:  (202) 720-8257, Find contact information for Regional and State Field Offices. Hours: 7:30 a.m. - 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time Monday - Friday, except federal holidays Toll-Free: (800) 727-9540, Hours: 9:00 a.m. - 5:30 p.m. Eastern Time Monday - Friday, except federal holidays Toll-Free: (833) One-USDA Making Orange County a safe, healthy, and fulfilling place to live, work, and play, today and for generations to come, by providing outstanding, cost-effective regional public services. Trend adjustments were removed from the FSA benchmark yield histories and then compared with NASS yield data, where available, over the 2013 to 2017 crop years. That weather and delayed planting progress led to market and analyst expectations of low 2019 corn acreage and yields. With the release of NASS county yield estimates last week, producers now have virtually all information that will become available to estimate payments and help make their program decisions by the enrollment deadline. DISPOSAL DATE December 31, 2019 The Sign up for weekly email updates. Page 4: ile 112 Historical Corn Yields by County in Iowa: Table 4. This adjusted yield is what is currently being used in the Gardner Program Payment Calculator to project 2019 ARC-CO payments for McLean county. T-yields were used in the calculation of the prior 10 year average if three or fewer years of actual yields were missing. It delivers interactive vegetation indices that enable quantification of U.S. crop conditions for exploring, visualizing, querying, and disseminating via interactive maps. For each year from 2013 to 2017, differences between the FSA and NASS yield … The attachment identifies the RMA basis for final county yield determination in the affected counties with policies. However, ARC-IC calculates all crops on a farm together and utilizes farm-level historic … Crop Condition and Soil Moisture Analytics (Crop-CASMA) is a web-based geospatial application. NASS yields are available through the Quick Stats website maintained by NASS. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the 2019 estimated average county yields for corn, soybeans, and other crops on February 20. Producers should account for this yield and price uncertainty when comparing the ARC and PLC program options in making their enrollment decisions. FSA has provided the 2013 to 2017 trend-adjusted yield histories used to calculate 2019 benchmark yields for the ARC-CO program, along with the annual yield trend factors used for the 2019 program (benchmark yield and trend factor data available here). USDA NASS Releases Wheat Production Data by County December 12, 2019. FOLEY, Minn. (03/18/2020) — The National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) released the crop yield estimates for various crops from 2019. A “2019arcCoPayEstimates.xlsx” worksheet provides an ARC-CO payment estimate for each county that NASS has provided a yield. For irrigated corn, the average corn yield adjustment is nearly 20 bushels. The ARC/PLC program enrollment deadline of March 15, 2020 is quickly approaching. FSA has provided the 2013 to 2017 trend-adjusted yield histories used to calculate 2019 benchmark yields for the ARC-CO program, along with the annual yield trend factors used for the 2019 program (benchmark yield and trend factor data available here). 12/23/20  United States Hog Inventory Down 1 Percent, 12/08/20  U.S. Horticulture Operations Report $13.8 Billion in Sales, 11/30/20  USDA to Conduct 2020 Local Food Marketing Practices Survey, 11/10/20  USDA Appoints Members to the Advisory Committee on Agriculture Statistics, 10/22/20  2019 Organic Survey results show sales up 31% from 2016, 10/09/20  U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Down from September, 12/10/20  USDA NASS to Reinstate the Agricultural Labor Survey Previously Scheduled for Oct. 2020, 12/01/20  NASS Reschedules North American Potatoes Report to December 9, 09/30/20  USDA NASS to Suspend the October Agricultural Labor Survey, 08/17/20  USDA NASS to Collect Additional Harvested Acreage Information, 05/12/20  USDA NASS to Re-Survey North Dakota Operators with Previously Unharvested Corn and Soybeans, 08/05/20  The NASS Mission: We do it for you, 04/11/19  2017 Census of Agriculture Highlight Series – Farms and Land in Farms, 04/11/19  2017 Census of Agriculture Highlight Series – Economics, 04/11/19  2017 Census of Agriculture Highlight Series – Demographics, 04/08/19  How to find 2017 Census of Agriculture Data, 12/10/20  Crop Production (December 2020), 11/10/20  Crop Production (November 2020), 09/30/20  Small Grains and Stocks (September 2020), Talking About NASS - A guide for partners and stakeholders, REE Reasonable Accommodations and Personal Assistance Services, Safeguarding America's Agricultural Statistics Report and Video, Agriculture Counts - The Founding and Evolution of the National Agricultural Statistics Service   1957-2007. 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